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Market Update | 25 January

  • Wholesale electricity market signals that are a sign of the times
  • Cookstove scrutiny prompts voluntary market response
  • ESCs soften, VEECs soar, and LGCs rebound

Australia’s Wholesale Power Prices Plummet, Renewables Surge, and Challenges Emerge

In a significant development for the Australian energy landscape, wholesale power prices in the National Electricity Market (NEM) experienced an almost 50% decrease at the close of 2023, dropping to an average of $48 per megawatt-hour (MWh) in December, according to the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO). Despite warmer temperatures leading to a 1.6% increase in average electricity demand, renewables, particularly rooftop solar, played a crucial role, with output rising by 17%.

However, challenges lie ahead as spot prices surged in Queensland due to ongoing warm temperatures, breaking previous records in demand. AEMO issued “lack of reserve” notices for Queensland and New South Wales, illustrating strains on the power grid during heatwaves.

The decline in black coal-fired generation and fossil gas demand further drove down East Coast wholesale prices, averaging $10.83/gigajoule—almost 40% lower than the same quarter in 2022. Daniel Westerman, AEMO’s CEO, sees these events as “snapshots of the transition,” and while presenting a great sign of a growing opportunity, he highlighted the need for additional storage, like large-scale batteries, to prevent curtailment of solar farm output.

Navigating the Carbon Offset Landscape with Clean Cookstove Projects

In a recent study published in “Nature Sustainability,” the University of California, Berkeley, explored the potential overestimation of clean cookstove projects, a prevalent form of carbon-offset project under the voluntary carbon market. The study suggested overestimations of up to 1,000%, prompting a critical examination of the projects. However, Gold Standard, a key certifier of carbon credits, expressed reservations about the study’s conclusions, emphasising that the study did not find actual over-estimation and contested its alignment with broader academic consensus and data.

Gold Standard asserted the effectiveness of their clean cooking solutions, highlighting CO2e reductions of between 2.4 to 3.2 tonnes per stove per year, in line with broad academic literature.

The response underscored the significance of clean cooking projects, as about 2.3 billion people rely on open fires, impacting health and contributing to an estimated 2% of global climate emissions. While acknowledging the challenges, Gold Standard are committed to collaboration with experts and industry bodies to optimize processes, ensure accurate impact measurement, and invest in capacity development.

The study, while prompting scrutiny, offers an opportunity for the industry to refine methodologies and enhance transparency and it’s evident that the commitment to a sustainable and impactful carbon credit market remains strong.

At Ecovantage, we consistently analyse market activity, policy changes, consultation releases, and creation rates in conjunction with wider landscape activity. This allows us to keep our clients at the forefront of all relevant changes, and to leverage the advantage that this presents. Thank you for your continued support, and please reach out if you have any general or project-specific questions.

Angus Taylor

Angus Taylor | Business Development Manager, Energy & Carbon Services
Angus specialises in ESS activities including Heat Pumps, Air Conditioning, and Commercial Lighting.

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